Decision Days 2022

Now that the Court has heard all cases scheduled for the October 2021 term, we can watch for decisions announced on Mondays (except May 30 for Memorial Day and June 20 for the observance of Juneteenth, when the Court will instead release decisions the next day) until the end of June, when the Court will go on recess until First Monday in October. This blog will go on recess after this post, until it’s time to preview the first arguments of the October 2022 term. But first, a quick rundown of decisions I’m anticipating.

Understandably, almost all the attention is on Dobbs v. Whole Women’s Health and whether the leaked opinion, and with how many alterations, will be the majority opinion when it is announced. I have nothing to add to that rampant speculation!

But we are also awaiting a decision in another major case that was argued a month before Dobbs. What I said about it before the November 3 argument:

  • Second Amendment issue involving New York’s “proper cause requirement” for concealed-carry licenses. See an overview here. Lots of attention to this one — New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. Bruen has 87 amicus briefs! I recommend reading the Second Circuit ruling and a couple of briefs, all available here. For people interested in international law, note the brief from Amnesty International. And it’s always worth reading a brief from the NAACP LDEF.

We are also awaiting decision in a major religion case argued December 8 (just one week after Dobbs):

  • An extremely important religion clauses case today, in Carson v. Makin. Over half the school districts in Maine do not operate a high school but instead provide funding for students to attend either public or private schools outside the state, but only at “nonsectarian” schools. You may recall that last year, the Court held that states that choose to subsidize private education cannot exclude religious schools from receiving funding simply because they are religious institutions. In upholding Maine’s system, the First Circuit distinguished that ruling (Espinoza v. Montana Department of Revenue), finding that Maine’s restriction was use-based rather than identity-based: the Maine law “does not bar schools from receiving funding simply based on their religious identity — a status that in and of itself does not determine how a school would use the funds that it receives to provide educational instruction.” The question presented today is “Whether a state violates the religion clauses or equal protection clause of the United States Constitution by prohibiting students participating in an otherwise generally available student-aid program from choosing to use their aid to attend schools that provide religious, or ‘sectarian,’ instruction.”

Those are the major cases still outstanding from 2021 arguments. Order of argument is not a reliable indicator of order of decisions, although every October and November argument has been decided except New York State Rifle & Pistol, and most December and January cases have also been decided at this point. So going in that order, the next major decision to look out for is in West Virginia v. EPA, argued on February 28:

  • An important set of cases today concerning EPA’s authority, which has largely slipped under the mainstream radar. The Court has consolidated four cases against the EPA, brought by West Virginia, North Dakota, North American Coal Corp., and Westmoreland Mining Holdings.
  • Briefly, the issues began when Obama Administration enacted the Clean Power Plan, perhaps the country’s most ambitious effort to reduce carbon emissions. The regulations were immediately challenged as unconstitutional and beyond EPA’s authority. While the litigation was ongoing, the Trump Administration rescinded the plan and replaced it with the “Affordable Clean Energy” rule, but litigation continued. Then the Biden Administration has said it will not reinstate the Obama plan but rather will issue a new plan; it asked the Court to decline to hear this case and to instead address any challenges to the new rule after it is announced. However, the Court instead accepted cert. on “Whether, in 42 U.S.C. § 7411(d), an ancillary provision of the Clean Air Act, Congress constitutionally authorized the Environmental Protection Agency to issue significant rules — including those capable of reshaping the nation’s electricity grids and unilaterally decarbonizing virtually any sector of the economy — without any limits on what the agency can require so long as it considers cost, nonair impacts and energy requirements.” 
  • This is an exceedingly important case but the legal issues will be hard to follow. Start with this thorough and readable summary. Then take a look at the DC Circuit ruling and one or more of the vast array of amici briefs that have been filed in this case.

And finally (although these decisions won’t necessarily be announced last) are the major cases from April’s arguments. Kennedy v. Bremerton School District involves a public school coach who prayed before games. And Biden v. Texas involves rescission of the Migrant Protection Protocols (aka “remain in Mexico”).

How to “watch”

Before the pandemic, the Justices would take the bench on decision days. The author of the majority opinion would announce the holding, and sometimes a dissenting Justice would make a statement as well. Sadly, that hasn’t returned; there is no live-stream of decision announcements like there was for arguments. 

Instead, watch the Court’s website beginning at 10am Mondays (or the Tuesday after Memorial Day and the observed holiday for Juneteenth — and additional days if announced, as the Court often does in June). Decisions get posted on the front page, but if you’re actively watching for decisions, then it’s better to monitor this page. The decisions get posted 10 minutes apart and we don’t know in advance how many there will be. But when the “R number” column gets filled in on that page, you know they’re done for the day. (See the scotusblog blurb on “What is the significance of “R” numbers?” for the details on why this works as an unofficial sign.)